Impact

A warm Arctic with less (no) sea ice and increased Atlantic water inflow will have a profound impact on the ocean ecosystem (Task 3.1) and the biological pump (Task 3.2). Already today, Atlantic species (i.e. fish) are reported in the Arctic, and with a completely blue Arctic new habitats and niches will be created for organisms that are normally found further south in the Nordic Seas.

Here, we will integrate the results of WP1 and WP2 to document how Arctic change impacts the plankton, benthos, and the biological pump in past greenhouse intervals. Further, we evaluate these results for key thresholds and potential tipping points in the Arctic realm for past, present and future (Task 3.3).

Predicting the future spread of possible Arctic climates, the risks of climate extremes and rapid warming transitions is of high socio-economic relevance. Several studies based on observations and model simulations find a robust connection between extremes in northern continents and Arctic sea-ice loss.

Despite intense efforts to understand Arctic-midlatitudes climate teleconnections, the effect of climate extremes, such as a blue Arctic Ocean and a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet, has not been understood in depth and will be explored in WP3.

Work package lead: Stijn De Schepper