The dynamics of a changed Arctic cryosphere and ocean
Paleoclimate records generated in WP1 offer a unique opportunity to study feedbacks relevant for future warming. The aim of WP2 is to evaluate the processes and dynamics leading to or resulting from past greenhouse climate states in the Arctic, with a specific focus on cryosphere change. The new results will provide valuable out-of-sample tests for the tools used to simulate future climate and environmental changes suitable for integration to IPCC and policy frameworks in WP3.
In Task 2.1, we will use the palaeo-climatic information from WP1 to assess further the impact of solar insolation, pCO2 and tectonic changes on Arctic climate by applying a suite of ESMs (Nor-ESM, AWI-ESM). In Task 2.2 we evaluate uncertainties of changing Arctic ice sheets in a warmer world applying in-house UiT-ISM. Task 2.3 deals with polar amplification of the system with respect to model resolution and pCO2. A mechanistic understanding of ocean-sea ice changes through different phases of gateway and Greenland Ice Sheet configurations will be evaluated in Task 2.4. All simulations will be tested and validated by empirical results from WP1.
Work package lead: Gerrit Lohmann
Leads: Zhang (NORCE); Butzin, Müller (AWI): Ezat, Knies (UiT)
1 – Resolve the impacts of climate forcing and tectonics on past Arctic greenhouse climate states
2 – Constrain the cryosphere response to GHG forcing and environmental changes.